Energy

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply on Friday and performed worse than the overall market following the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv in a retaliatory attack that reportedly caused injuries, according to the Wall Street Journal. Most of the missiles were intercepted or fell short, according to Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, which reported the Israeli military. Earlier, Israeli warplanes attacked multiple sites in Iran. Following news of the attacks, the major US stock indices followed by ICIS fell, but not as sharply as shares of chemical companies. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 13-Jun Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 42,197.79 -769.83 -1.79% S&P 500 5,967.97 -68.29 -1.13% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 832.55 -12.02 -1.42% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 885.14 -15.59 -1.73% The following table shows the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 23.99 -0.49 -2.00% Avient 34.3 -1.42 -3.98% Axalta Coating Systems 28.79 -1.37 -4.54% Braskem 3.67 -0.07 -1.87% Chemours 10.98 -0.49 -4.27% Celanese 54.63 -2.24 -3.94% DuPont 66.87 -1.57 -2.29% Dow 29.9 -0.24 -0.80% Eastman 76.19 -1.93 -2.47% HB Fuller 54.16 -1.92 -3.42% Huntsman 10.9 -0.64 -5.55% Kronos Worldwide 6.23 -0.22 -3.41% LyondellBasell 60.1 -0.03 -0.05% Methanex 36 1.57 4.56% NewMarket 648.7 -6.24 -0.95% Olin 20.38 -0.67 -3.18% PPG 106.3 -5.73 -5.11% RPM International 108.08 -6.78 -5.90% Stepan 54.42 -1.26 -2.26% Sherwin-Williams 335.88 -20.32 -5.70% Tronox 5.56 -0.23 -3.97% Trinseo 3.4 0.02 0.59% Westlake 77.3 -1.32 -1.68% Methanex shares rose after it passed a regulatory milestone in its $2.05 billion purchase of the methanol business of OCI Global. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI crude futures both rose by nearly $4/bbl. US producers idled three oil drilling rigs, bringing the total to 439, the lowest figure since October 2021. EUROPEAN SHARES FELL EARLIER IN THE DAYEarlier, Europe chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on Friday that Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility had been struck in the first salvo of strikes that also hit residential areas as part of attacks on military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated on Friday that strikes will continue “for as many days as it takes” to remove nuclear enrichment facilities, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged the Iranian government not to respond. The IAEA noted on Thursday that Iran is potentially in breach of its non nuclear-proliferation agreements for the first time since the early 2000s, but Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the nuclear watchdog, attacked the strikes on Friday. “Nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances,” he said, noting that there is presently no elevation at the Natanz site. MARKETS Oil prices soared in the wake of the strikes, with Brent crude futures jumping nearly $5/barrel on Friday to $74.31/barrel, the highest level since April, while WTI futures were trading at $73.15/barrel, the highest since January. Equities slumped as commodities surged, with Asia bourses universally closing in the red and all key European stock indices trading down in morning trading. The STOXX 600 chemicals index was trading down over 1% as of 10:30 BST, in line with general markets, with stock prices for a third of the 21 component companies down 2-3%. The hardest-hit were Fuchs, LANXESS and Umicore, which saw stocks fall 3.72%, 3.24% and 2.97% compared to Thursday’s close. The situation has also had a dramatic impact on fertilizers markets, with Iran a key global exporter of urea, and some contacts reporting disruption in Israel’s supply of gas to Egypt. SHIPPING Shipping could also face further disruption, with the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) monitor publishing an advisory on Wednesday – before the start of the Israel  strikes – that increased Middle East military activity could impact on mariners. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution,” the watchdog said. Around 20% of global oil trade passes through along the Strait of Hormuz, and any move by Iran to block the route could have a huge impact on freight traffic that is still disrupted by firms avoiding the Red Sea in the wake of Houthi strikes. Activity in the Red Sea is understood to have subsided in recent weeks after a US-Houthi ceasefire but shipping firms remain leery of the route, and the attacks on Iran could further inflame tensions in the region. Higher risk and insurance price hikes could also drive shipping prices through the region steadily higher. The upward movement for shipping prices had showed signs of plateauing this week, with China-Europe and China-US route charge steady week on week as of 12 June after weeks of surges, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Some freight indices continued to climb, however, with the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index up 9.6% as of 12 June, the highest level since October 2024. Thumbnail image: Iran Tehran Israel Strike – 13 June 2025. Iran's IRIB state TV reported explosions in areas of the capital of Tehran and counties of Natanz, Khondab and Khorramabad. (Xinhua/Shutterstock) Additional reporting by Tom Brown

13-Jun-2025

Energy markets price in increased risk following Israeli strikes on Iran but impact on fundamentals limited Retaliation from Iran highly likely, strong response expected given Israeli attack severity But energy market participants cautious on longer-term escalation risks, citing regional examples of geopolitical tension with limited lasting price impact Brent crude would need to near $100/bbl for oil-linked LNG contracts to match current LNG spot market prices Unfolding situation further supports already bullish picture for coming months across energy markets In the early hours of 13 June, Israel launched a wave of attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear programme, with strikes on nuclear infrastructure as well as the killing of scientists and military figures. Iran’s foreign minister called the attacks a “declaration of war” and vowed to retaliate. ICIS experts share views on the potential next steps and the future impact across the energy complex.  Did the strike take energy markets by surprise? (Matthew Jones, Head of Power Analytics) An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has been a significant market risk for many months. Back in January, we predicted this occurrence in 2025. While there had not been much sign of an impending attack in the first few months of the year, there were reports in late May that Israel was preparing a move, while the US began to pull staff out of the Middle East on Tuesday 10 June, after news emerged that strikes could be imminent. The exact timing was not clear, but markets were aware of rapidly increasing risk. What price impact have we seen so far across the commodity complex? (Gemma Blundell-Doyle, Crude Market Reporter) Oil prices spiked by almost 10% on Friday morning, to their highest since January this year. Brent crude reached $78.48/barrel at 03:41 London time. At 14:30 it remained elevated at $74.33/barrel. (Rob Dalton, Senior Gas Market Reporter) European gas prices rose on Friday morning with the ICIS TTF front-month up 6% to €38.50 ($44.30)/MWh, a three-month high. (Anna Coulson, Senior Power Market Reporter) Bullish European gas supported power prices, with the German front month rising 2.2% from Thursday’s close to €82.75/MWh by 13:50 on Friday. (Ed Cox, Global LNG Editor) East Asian LNG (ICIS EAX) spot prices rose 8% on Friday to $13.43/MMBtu, the highest since March. Asian spot prices have been increasing since early June, in line with a firmer ICIS TTF. Global gas price forward curves 13 June 2025, Source: ICIS, CME Is the price impact risk-based, or have we seen a direct impact on fundamentals so far? (Gemma Blundell-Doyle) Oil fundamentals were on Friday afternoon unchanged. The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. (Rob Dalton) The immediate, price-driven response across the TTF was fuelled by rising risk premiums and speculative positioning, with particular concern surrounding the shutdown of Israel’s offshore gas fields. Market participants remain cautious about the longer-term risks of escalation, with many pointing to the 2024 Israel-Iran conflict as an example of geopolitical tension with limited lasting impact on pricing. (Ed Cox) No immediate fundamental LNG impact with outright spot LNG demand limited from key Asian buyers, partly due to market prices sitting well above oil-linked LNG contracts. LNG buyers closely monitor oil prices, which are still used to price most Asian LNG procurement. Most oil-linked contracts take a historic oil price of at least three months previous, so higher Brent today would impact LNG contracts later in the year. Brent would need to go closer to $100/bbl for oil-linked LNG contracts to match current LNG spot prices and to encourage buyers to switch to more spot offtake. ICIS understands that Egyptian fertilizer producers have already shut down at least three urea plants because of measures taken by Israel to temporarily halt gas production. Israel supplies over 30 million cubic metres/day of gas to Egypt, which already faces major supply shortages. Any extended reduction in Israeli gas supply could mean Egypt has to buy additional LNG cargoes to cover the shortage. Egypt has recently committed to buy what could be close to 10 million tonnes of LNG in 2025 and 2026 from a variety of sellers through large tenders. It may call on the market for additional cargoes which in turn could further support global spot prices. What next? (Matthew Jones) You could see different levels of response from Iran. The least consequential would be similar to the events of April 2024 playing out again, in which Iran fires missiles and drones at Israel, which shoots most of them down. Given Iran’s weak position this cannot be ruled out. But it seems more likely that Iran will attempt a stronger response given the severity of the Israeli attack. That could include attacks on targets in the Persian Gulf, including on tankers or oil refineries. Iran could conclude that creating energy market turbulence is the best way to get the US to restrain Israeli action. The most consequential response would be the closing of the Straits of Hormuz through which massive volumes of global oil and LNG travel. Such an event would have major bullish consequences for global energy markets but should be seen as low probability as Iran will be very reluctant to alienate key allies like China. It would also be physically very difficult for Iran to close the Strait even if it wanted to. (Ed Cox) For LNG, the narrative around a potential Straits of Hormuz closure will return, even if this would represent a major further escalation from Iran with little clarity on practical implementation. Almost 20% of global LNG production will pass through Hormuz from Qatar and the UAE in 2025 so the global LNG market will naturally focus closely on events. LNG and wider shipping flows via the nearby Suez Canal remain constrained due to the risk of attack and there is limited scope for a major impact on LNG shipping given the large number of new vessels coming to the market which is suppressing charter rates. But we should expect major LNG buyers to analyse current stocks and review emergency supply security plans in response to these events. Global LNG exports and share of trade using the Strait of Hormuz. Source: ICIS (Andreas Schroeder, Head of Gas Analytics) A wider Middle East conflict could have serious implications for Egyptian gas markets. The country has switched to becoming an importer of LNG since 2024 and is set to increase imports going forward. A major buy tender was issued recently. There is now talk of around 100-110 cargos needed overall in 2025 instead of the previously expected 60-70. We forecast 6.3 million tonnes of LNG imports, nearly tripling the 2.4 million tonnes of 2024. Egypt also receives LNG via pipeline from Jordan’s Aqaba import terminal, which imported 0.8 million tonnes in 2024. In addition, Israel is a major pipeline supplier to Egypt with around 10 bcm/year covering a fifth of Egyptian demand. Should a regional conflict escalate further, an extended stop of Israeli gas exports to Egypt could imply even stronger LNG intake into Egypt for the remainder of 2025. Egyptian LNG imports. Source: ICIS (Gemma) The US and Iran are set to meet in Oman on 15 June to continue ongoing nuclear talks. The Israeli strike on Iran will be on the agenda. US president Trump has urged Iran to make a deal regarding its nuclear programme and to prevent further attacks from Israel, bit it is unlikely Iran will concede without retaliation. Where could commodity prices go in coming days and weeks? (Ajay Parmar, Director, Energy & Refining) We expect Iran to retaliate and tensions to escalate further. This will likely cause oil prices to remain elevated for the coming weeks. If a resolution is found later this month, prices could begin to retreat, but for now, we see them remaining elevated in June and July as a result of this escalation. (Ed Cox) The TTF is ever more influenced by geopolitical events given Europe’s dependency on LNG imports. Often, TTF volatility does not match changes in regional gas fundamentals as traders are changing positions to consider wider macro views. It is possible the TTF could swing by 5-10% daily while uncertainty over further escalation continues. Even though oil pricing plays a limited role in European gas price formulation, it is likely the TTF would follow higher Brent in the context of an overall bullish energy market. (Rob Dalton) Even before recent developments, the near-term outlook for European gas markets had already tilted bullish due to a summer injection demand gap. An escalating conflict would heighten the risk of a broader move higher across the entire near curve, placing increased emphasis on refilling storage sites in the near term. How does the news impact your broader view of the current energy market complex? (Matthew Jones) We held a webinar on 12 June in which we presented a bullish view for the European energy commodity complex in H2 2025. We see significant upside risk to prices in the coming months, stemming from expectations for rising carbon prices, gas storage targets shifting volume risk to winter, the potential continuation of low wind speeds and fears over the return of stress corrosion issues at French reactors. The Israeli attack on Iran and the potential consequences we have outlined here further support that bullish picture for the coming months. (Ed Cox) From an LNG perspective, the fundamental outlook from Asia is not strong in the short term, largely due to weak economic performance from China. European gas looks more bullish. But the correlation between the TTF and Asian spot LNG is strong with the potential for prices in both markets to rise further on Middle East concerns, even if the immediate fundamental impact is focused on Israeli gas supply to Egypt.

13-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s missile strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on Friday that Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility had been struck in the first salvo of strikes that also hit residential areas as part of attacks on military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated on Friday that strikes will continue “for as many days as it takes” to remove nuclear enrichment facilities, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged the Iranian government not to respond. The IAEA noted on Thursday that Iran is potentially in breach of its non nuclear-proliferation agreements for the first time since the early 2000s, but Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the nuclear watchdog, attacked the strikes on Friday. “Nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances,” he said, noting that there is presently no elevation at the Natanz site. MARKETS Oil prices soared in the wake of the strikes, with Brent crude futures jumping nearly $5/barrel on Friday to $74.31/barrel, the highest level since April, while WTI futures were trading at $73.15/barrel, the highest since January. Equities slumped as commodities surged, with Asia bourses universally closing in the red and all key European stock indices trading down in morning trading. The STOXX 600 chemicals index was trading down over 1% as of 10:30 BST, in line with general markets, with stock prices for a third of the 21 component companies down 2-3%. The hardest-hit were Fuchs, LANXESS and Umicore, which saw stocks fall 3.72%, 3.24% and 2.97% compared to Thursday’s close. The situation has also had a dramatic impact on fertilizers markets, with Iran a key global exporter of urea, and some contacts reporting disruption in Israel’s supply of gas to Egypt. SHIPPING Shipping could also face further disruption, with the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) monitor publishing an advisory on Wednesday – before the start of the Israel  strikes – that increased Middle East military activity could impact on mariners. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution,” the watchdog said. Around 20% of global oil trade passes through along the Strait of Hormuz, and any move by Iran to block the route could have a huge impact on freight traffic that is still disrupted by firms avoiding the Red Sea in the wake of Houthi strikes. Activity in the Red Sea is understood to have subsided in recent weeks after a US-Houthi ceasefire but shipping firms remain leery of the route, and the attacks on Iran could further inflame tensions in the region. Higher risk and insurance price hikes could also drive shipping prices through the region steadily higher. The upward movement for shipping prices had showed signs of plateauing this week, with China-Europe and China-US route charge steady week on week as of 12 June after weeks of surges, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Some freight indices continued to climb, however, with the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index up 9.6% as of 12 June, the highest level since October 2024. Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail image: Iran Tehran Israel Strike – 13 June 2025. Iran's IRIB state TV reported explosions in areas of the capital of Tehran and counties of Natanz, Khondab and Khorramabad. (Xinhua/Shutterstock)

13-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–After two years of decline, Germany’s GDP could start growing again in 2025, economic research institutes said on Thursday. Although the trade and tariff conflicts are still weighing on export demand, billions of euros of planned government spending on infrastructure and defense would start supporting growth, they said. “Leading indicators support our view that, after two years of contraction, the industrial sector has reached the trough, albeit at a low level,” said Stefan Kooths, head of forecasting at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel). The recovery would be largely driven by domestic factors, with private consumption and corporate investment picking up after a two-year drought, he said. IfW Kiel noted that “significantly greater fiscal room” for the new federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz should help drive growth. Germany recently amended its constitution to enable more debt-financed spending. IfW Kiel revised its GDP growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 0.3% for 2025, from its previous expectation of zero growth, and for 2026 it expects GDP growth of 1.6%. However, it warned that the “erratic” US tariff policy was fueling uncertainty for Germany’s foreign trade. In addition, German exporters were hampered by “significantly reduced competitiveness”, it said. Another institute, ifo Munich, now forecasts 0.3% GDP growth in 2025, up from its earlier 0.2% projection, and it predicts 1.5% growth for 2026, up from its previous 0.8% assessment. After reaching its low point in the winter, Germany’s economy is now set for a “growth spurt”, partly driven by the government fiscal measures, ifo said. However, like IfW Kiel, ifo warned of the risks posed by US trade policies. The US import tariffs already imposed – and assuming they remain at the current level – would impact Germany’s economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026, ifo said. If a US-EU trade agreement is reached, growth in Germany could be higher, whereas an escalation could lead to a renewed recession, ifo said. A third institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), said if the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, Germany’s GDP could grow by 0.4% in 2025, up from IWH’s previous 0.1% growth forecast. IWH also noted that the slow licensing for exports of rare earths from China has led to a shortage that is threatening production in parts of Germany’s manufacturing industry. In Germany’s chemical industry, producers’ trade group VCI currently expects chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) to fall by 2.0% this year. Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (Source: Christian Democratic Union party)

12-Jun-2025

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–Chemical companies can find more ways to grow profits beyond cost cutting as they enter another year of slow economic growth in the longest downturn in years. Early in 2025, chemical companies lost faith that economic growth will be strong enough to contribute to profit growth, and that drought could extend into 2026. A five-year global chemical buyer value study conducted by the consultancy Accenture shows areas where chemical companies can wring value out of their operations that go beyond cost-cutting. The study was conducted in December 2024-February 2025. Cost cutting is not off the table. The study found that chemical companies have overestimated their customers' preferences for some products and services. MULTI-YEAR DOWNTURNThe downturn in the chemical industry started about three years ago after consumers stopped splurging on big-ticket items following the pandemic. Higher inflation caused interest rates to increased, which raised house prices and depressed demand for plastics and chemicals used in construction. Consumers moved less because they could not afford new or existing houses, so that lowered demand for durable goods like furniture and appliances. The war between Russia and Ukraine caused a surge in energy costs. In Europe energy prices never returned to levels before the conflict. Higher costs lowered demand and contributed to de-industrialization in Europe. This year, tariffs and uncertain trade policy from the US have made companies and consumers more reluctant to purchase goods and make investments. The performance of US-listed shares of chemical companies illustrates how difficult these past few years have been for the industry. The following lists Wednesday’s closing prices for the US listed companies followed by ICIS and their 52-week highs. Figures are in dollars/share. Company Price 52 Week High AdvanSix 24.81 33.00 Avient 36.06 54.68 Axalta 30.29 41.66 Braskem 3.75 7.71 Chemours 11.87 25.80 Celanese 58.19 150.31 DuPont 69.40 90.06 Dow 30.68 57.22 Eastman 80.04 114.50 HB Fuller 56.58 87.67 Huntsman 12.04 25.12 Kronos 6.73 14.37 LyondellBasell 61.12 100.46 Methanex 35.05 54.49 NewMarket 667.15 667.15 Olin 21.80 52.17 PPG 113.01 137.24 RPM 115.11 141.79 Stepan 56.53 94.77 Sherwin-Williams 357.13 400.42 Tronox 6.01 20.29 Trinseo 3.39 7.05 Westlake 80.19 156.64 For now, a recession is not in the outlook, but neither is a strong recovery. ICIS expects that US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024. Growth in 2026 could be 1.7%. The country has a 34% chance of slipping into a recession in the next 12 months. HOW TO GROW IN A SLOW GROWTH WORLDChemical companies don't have to wait for the recovery to increase profits, according to the chemical buyer study from Accenture. It found that 36% of chemical customers are willing to pay 5% or more above market price if their needs are fully met, and 43% are willing to buy 10% or more if all of their product and service needs are met, the study said. Chemical companies can increase revenue if they know where to look. The following table shows the top 10 customer needs for 2025, according to the Accenture study. Product Performance Reliable Delivery Quality Technical Support Product Consistency Data Privacy & Cybersecurity Secure & Seamless Transactions Trust Product Innovation Brand Strength Product Offerings Source: Accenture Making high-quality molecules will always be a priority, but chemical companies can do a better job of meeting their customers' needs by targeting services, Accenture said. Many underestimated needs cited by customers centered around services. The following table lists the top 10 services valued by chemical customers. Reliable delivery Quality technical support Data privacy and cybersecurity Secure and seamless transactions 24/7 access Order flexibility Complaint resolution Easy access to product info. & regulatory support E-commerce Comprehensive product support & expert guidance Source: Accenture New technologies are opening more opportunities for chemical companies to stand out by improving their services. Accenture mentioned the following: AI-based transport management solutions E-commerce platforms for seamless transactions Web portals and large language model-supported platforms for 24/7 access. CUSTOMER NEEDS HAVE EVOLVED SINCE 2020Chemical companies can extract more value by updating their priorities to keep up with the changing demands from their customers. The following table lists the top five needs that customers are underestimated by chemical companies. It compares those needs with Accenture's list from 2020. 2025 2020 24/7 access Packaging customization Reliable delivery Reliable delivery Product consistency Water conservation Environmental health & safety compliance Complaint resolution Product innovation Digital interfaces & experiences/chatbots Source: Accenture HOW TO CUT THE RIGHT COSTSCompanies may still have some fat they can cut, based on the Accenture study. It showed a gap between what customers want and what chemical companies think they want. The following lists the top five overestimated needs by chemical companies in 2025 and compares them with those in 2020. 2025 2020 Renewable-based products Value-added services Market intelligence Product consistency Product customization Quality technical support Value-added services Product sampling/trails Local/regional supply source Recyclable products Source: Accenture Renewable-based products, which also covers recycled materials, can demand a premium, but it may fall short of what producers need to generate a profit. While 74% of chemical customers are willing to pay more for sustainable products, only 38% are willing to pay a premium of more than 5%, according to Accenture. Only 13% are willing to pay a premium of at least 15%. That is short of the premium of 20% that is likely to be needed to produce sustainable products. HOW CAN CHEMICAL COMPANIES GET ON THE SAME PAGE AS THEIR CUSTOMERSChemical companies have a tendency to focus on innovation even when it does not align with their customers' needs, because that is the nature of a science-based industry, said Denise Dignam, CEO of Chemours, a US-based producer of pigment and fluoromaterials. She spoke on a panel that discussed the findings of Accenture's study during the annual meeting held by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). “We are scientists. We like innovation," she said. Chemical companies need to be mindful that customers value mundane but critical services like supply chain logistics. One strategy to keep customer needs front and center is to rely on front-line sales people, said Alastair Port, executive president of Indorama Ventures: Indovinya. Port cautioned against relying too heavily on point-of-time surveys. Someone who fills out those surveys is providing feedback that is tied to one moment in time. It does not encompass overall satisfaction with the company's products and services. Ed Sparks, CEO of catalyst producer WR Grace, said technical resources and sales people are the best resources for gauging the actual needs of customers. Their collect data from their interactions with customers, convert it into information that can then become market intelligence. Companies that produce commodity chemicals can find ways to stand out even when their products vary little from their competitors, Port said. Buyers of commodity chemicals vary greatly in size. Smaller ones may not have innovation departments or elaborate purchasing departments. Commodity chemical producers can tailor their services to match the needs of their varied customers. Chemical producers can replicate molecules, but they cannot replicate service, Sparks said. WR Grace's refining catalyst business has a prominent service component, under which the company helps refiners optimize their operations. “That service component is really hard to replicate,” Sparks said. The ACC Annual Meeting ended on 4 June. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows money. Image by ICIS.

12-Jun-2025

Egypt continues to ramp up LNG imports as it lines up long-term LNG import capacity Tenders could tighten the LNG balance, but Egypt has a pattern of overbuying Egypt is also in ongoing discussions to secure LNG supplies from 2025-2028 LONDON (ICIS)–Egypt is ramping up its demand for LNG imports, with a consequential impact on the global LNG market. Egypt has swung back to being an LNG importer over the last year. It is already seeking a high number of cargoes this year, as well as planning further imports between now and 2028. Following a deal with majors TotalEnergies and Shell earlier this year, its demand may be here to stay. “They initially [tendered for] over 100 cargoes, then it turned out to be 40-60 cargoes,” one source said, while two other sources said around 40 cargoes were awarded. Concerns about the potential market price impact prompted Egypt to lower the number of cargoes it sought in its most recent tender, the source added. With the previous 60 cargoes from TotalEnergies and Shell, total 2025 demand could be around 100-120 cargoes, or around 7.0-8.4 million tonnes of LNG – a significant increase in both volume and pace compared with 2024. This comes as Egypt is in ongoing discussions to buy LNG supplies from 2025 to 2028, sources said, with one saying that state-owned EGAS has received 14 offers for supply ranging from 18 months to three years. The cargoes in the latest 40-60 cargo tender were heard awarded to Vitol, Shell, Hartree, Aramco and “a few others” at a premium of around $0.70/MMBtu to the benchmark TTF. The premium reflects the country’s credit risk and a nine-month deferred payment profile, one trader said, which is longer than the six-month deferred payment scheme seen in previous Egyptian tenders. "For Egypt, buyers need FOB cargoes, so there is a natural premium to be paid in exchange for losing flexibility," a second trader said. TIGHTER COMPETITION Egyptian demand is expected to peak in summer, when gas-for-power demand is higher due to higher cooling needs. “Total Egyptian demand this year is estimated to be 110 cargoes,” one trader said, which would equate to around 7.7 million tonnes of LNG. Another trader said that spot LNG discounts into northwest Europe could narrow further following the Egyptian tender. “I think the [Egyptian tender] will make the market tighter than expected. I expect the discounts in Europe to narrow," the trader said. A third trader said European LNG spot discounts for July-August deliveries had already narrowed slightly off the back of the Egyptian and Argentinean buy tenders, although further feedback this week suggests discounts are so far stable. The global LNG market is expected to face a shortfall of 2.1 million tonnes over the summer, according to ICIS LNG Foresight, while 2025 as a whole is projected to be oversupplied by 3 million tonnes. However, according to traders, it is challenging to say if the Egyptian tenders have been fully priced into the market due to Egypt’s option to push back or divert cargoes, potentially easing the call on LNG. Some contracted cargoes for Q4 2024 were pushed back to Q1 2025 or diverted due to lower-than-anticipated demand. “I am thinking that maybe their pattern is always to overbuy. If no prompt demand, they will defer [the cargoes],” one source said. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi recently directed the government to "pre-emptively take whatever needs necessary to ensure stable electricity flow". One report said that Egypt is negotiating to import 160 shipments through June 2026, which would represent another step up in imports from the current pace and increase. This comes as Egypt has also stepped up imports of cheaper energy, securing one million tonnes of fuel oil for delivery in May and June to restart its legacy power stations over the summer. Ultimately, spot LNG demand versus supply will be key in determining competitiveness between hubs in the short term. Asian demand has been low this year, especially Chinese demand, with sufficient pipeline gas in China denting downstream LNG demand. LONG-TERM LNG IMPORT CAPACITY Cairo’s latest moves to secure long-term import capacity provide further evidence that it sees domestic gas output remaining at low levels for the foreseeable future. ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley said that Egypt’s flip from a mid-sized exporter to a significant importer has happened quickly. “Even those expecting an increase in imports would have been unlikely to factor in the country hiring as many as four FSRUs in a short space of time,” he said. The Energos Eskimo FSRU recently departed Jordan’s Aqaba terminal as it prepares to begin a new 10-year charter with Egypt’s EGAS, ICIS data shows. The unit is expected to undergo some modifications before starting operations later this summer, one broker said. Energos Eskimo will join the existing Hoegh Galleon FSRU off Egypt, while the Energos Power FSRU and a BOTAS-chartered FSRU are also expected to be deployed soon. FUNDING GAP NARROWS Traders have questioned how Egypt can afford the number of tendered LNG cargoes, given its reliance on Saudi Arabia and Libya to pay for previous cargoes. This financial challenge, compounded by years of sluggish growth, is reflected in the consistent premiums that Egypt has had to pay in its LNG buy tenders. However, local urea producers have ramped up output and exports again in early June, an important source of foreign exchange, following periods of gas shortages. Egypt has also taken further steps to cover part of its funding gap, securing a $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January. In May, the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement to provide €4 billion in macro-financial assistance to Egypt. Together with the IMF programme for the 2024-2027 period, the assistance would help Egypt cover “part of its external funding gap”, the Parliament said. Additional reporting by Clare Pennington

11-Jun-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. Indian Oil eyes Dec ’27 start-up for 10,000 tonne/year Panipat hydrogen unit Two green ammonia projects start construction in Odisha Pilot projects initiated for hydrogen-powered heavy vehicles “Tenders for the production of 42,000 tonne/year have been floated by the refineries while 128 more will be issued by state-owned refineries based on the outcome of those tenders,” Indian petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri had said in a post on social media platform X on 6 June. As part of the initiative, nine research and development (R&D) or demo plants are under construction and four have been commissioned by state-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Gail India Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), he added. IOC, which is currently building India's largest green hydrogen plant with a 10,000 tonne/year capacity at its Panipat Refinery Complex, expects to begin operations at the plant by December 2027, the company had said on 30 May. Once operational, the plant will “replace fossil-derived hydrogen in refinery operations, resulting in substantial reduction in carbon emissions”, IOC added. Separately, construction work has begun on two green hydrogen and green ammonia projects at the Gopalpur industrial park in the eastern Odisha state. Hygenco Green Energies Ltd plans to invest Rs40 billion to build a 1.1 million tonne/year green ammonia plant at Gopalpur in three phases. It expects to complete the first phase by 2027. UAE-based Ocior Energy, meanwhile, is building a 1 million tonne/year green hydrogen and green ammonia plant at the Gopalpur industrial park at a cost of Rs72 billion, Odisha’s state government announced. A 200,000 tonne/year plant will be built in the first phase of operations by 2028, and a much bigger 800,000 tonne/year unit will be completed by 2030 in the eastern Indian state, according to Ocior’s website. The Gopalpur Industrial Park will also house the ACME Green Hydrogen’s green ammonia project, as well as a 1,500 tonne/day green ammonia project being set up by the Avaada Group. Separately, in a bid to grow India’s green hydrogen infrastructure, the central government also aims to decarbonize its transport sector through the introduction of hydrogen-powered trucks and buses. The government expects to commission five pilot projects for running these hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2027, according to National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) director Abhay Bakre. In March 2025, the government initiated these pilot projects with participation from private firms such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) as well as state-owned IOC, HPCL and BPCL, among others. As part of the project, the pilot routes have been mapped out on 10 routes across the country with nine hydrogen refuelling stations. The government plans to deploy around 1,000 hydrogen-powered trucks and buses by 2030, NGHM’s Bakre said. The government expects to get “almost 50 trucks and buses running this year”, he said, adding that the numbers would increase further next year. While automakers such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hyundai have announced plans to develop hydrogen-powered vehicles, companies such as RIL, BPCL, IOC plan to create green hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Launched in 2023, NGHM with an initial allocation of $2.4 billion, targets to have a minimum hydrogen production capacity of 5 million tonne/year by 2030. Since 2023, the government has allocated 862,000 tonne/year production capacity to 19 companies. ($1 = Rs85.60) Focus article by Priya Jestin

11-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of LA/LB, said May container ship arrivals were at 5.0/day, slightly below the 5.7/day that was the average prior to the pandemic. Through the first five days of June, arrivals are at 5.6/day, which is still slightly below the pre-pandemic norm. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to surge in the near term amid a pause in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said this is the busiest time of the year for US retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” Gold said. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.” Gold said many retailers suspended or canceled orders after US President Donald Trump announced a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until 12 August was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until 9 July as the administration negotiates with those countries. ASIA-US RATES SURGE Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US have spiked over the past couple of weeks – and have almost doubled over the past four weeks – as demand has surged ahead of the possible reinstatement of tariffs while capacity remains tight. Rates from supply chain advisors showed drastic increases over the past two weeks, and weekly rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos came out today with Asia-USWC rates at $5,488/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) and at $6,410/FEU to the East Coast. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

10-Jun-2025

Serbia eyes new gas interconnectors with Romania and North Macedonia by 2030 This could ensure domestic supply, serve as a transit route to Europe Srbijagas and Russia’s Gazprom in talks for a new long-term gas deal WARSAW (ICIS)– Serbia plans to build gas interconnectors with Romania and North Macedonia, diversifying its own gas needs and supporting supply security in the Balkan region over the coming years, as indicated by the country’s energy strategy released on 10 June. Balkan gas traders told ICIS that Serbia is expected to receive gas supplies from two routes: Romania’s Neptune Deep field and Azerbaijan. “Having three different gas supply options will guarantee Serbia’s energy security and diversification,” a local trader said. The government energy strategy released on 10 June said the country aims to build a 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year pipeline interconnection with Romania and 1.2bcm/year with North Macedonia. Both projects should be operational by 2030 as the government seeks private funding to aid their development. Serbia seeks to establish new supply routes: one from Greece's new Alexandroupolis LNG terminal, where Serbian state supplier Srbijagas has booked 300 million cubic meters of capacity per year and a second from Romania’s Neptune Deep gas field. The Romanian field is expected to have 100bcm in reserves with the first gas output expected in 2027. “The North Macedonia route is expected to boost Azeri flows to Serbia and the region,” a second trader added. Back in November 2023, Srbijagas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR signed a one-year gas supply contract of up to 400mcm supplied in 2024 with an option for 1bcm/year volumes in the following years. This winter Azeri gas flowed via the 1.8bcm/year Serbia-Bulgaria interconnector. GAZPROM TALKS Serbian gas supply will remain uninterrupted in the summer months thanks to the signing of a short-term gas deal with Russian producer Gazprom, the chief executive of Serbia's incumbent Srbijagas, Dusan Bajatovic, said in a briefing on 27 May. Srbijagas's current three-year deal for 2.2bcm/year  of supply expired on 31 May and the two firms signed an agreement covering the period 1 June- 31 September 2025 for 6 million cubic meters/day. Srbijagas and Gazprom are now negotiating a new long-term supply contract.

10-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As China steps up efforts to meet its dual carbon targets, hydrogen is becoming a practical and strategic tool to cut emissions from the country’s highly carbon-intensive cement industry. Cement industry under carbon pressure From hydrogen as substitute to carbon utilization for new value Five-year window open for low-carbon pilots Cement accounts for around 13-14% of China's total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ranking it the third-largest industrial source after power and steel. Facing mounting pressure from both international carbon regulations and domestic policy, China can tap hydrogen as a promising route toward meaningful emissions reductions. China’s cement industry is estimated to have emitted about 1.20 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2023, down for a third straight year. Emissions stood at 1.23 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020, when China’s cement clinker output peaked at 1.58 billion tonnes, and cement output hit 2.38 billion tonnes, according to China Building Materials Federation. Around 60% of this comes from the chemical reaction when limestone is heated to make clinker, a process that is difficult to change in the short term due to raw material constraints. Another 35% comes from fossil fuels combustion to generate heat for clinker production, which is a key substitution target. As of March 2025, China's national ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) expanded to include cement, alongside steel and aluminum, hence, the cement sector is also now fully exposed to carbon pricing. However, despite policy urgency, due to technical and equipment retrofitting complexities, the sector has moved slowly. The next five years will represent a pivotal window to scale pilot projects and validate decarbonization pathways. TWO ROUTES: CLEANER COMBUSTION & CARBON USE Hydrogen can help reduce emissions from cement mainly in two ways: fossil fuel substitution and carbon utilization. Fuel substitution with hydrogen is the immediate decarbonization leverage. Hydrogen can directly replace coal or gas in kilns. Its high calorific value and zero-carbon combustion profile make it an ideal fuel. However, because of its weak flame radiation and explosion risk, hydrogen is usually mixed with other fuels in current tests. European players lead the change: Cemex, a leading global building materials manufacturer, completed hydrogen retrofits at all its European cement plants by 2020, targeting a 5% CO2 reduction by 2030. Heidelberg Materials, another cement giant actively exploring hydrogen applications, achieved 100% net-zero fuel operation at its UK Ribblesdale plant in 2021, using a mix of 39% hydrogen, 12% meat and bone meal, and 49% glycerin. Another option is to combine CO2 capture from kiln exhausts with renewable hydrogen to synthesize e-methanol or e-methane. E-methanol and e-methane are synthetic fuels made by combining captured CO2 with renewable hydrogen using renewable electricity. LafargeHolcim, as one of the largest cement producers in the world, has multiple hydrogen decarbonisation projects across Europe. It is leading with its HyScale100 project in Germany, which aims to install electrolyzers at its Heide refinery, and combine electrolyzed hydrogen with CO2 from its Lägerdorf plant to produce e-methanol starting 2026. This model not only reduces emissions but also builds links across industries to create a circular carbon economy. CHINA: FROM POLICY PUSH TO PILOT PROJECTS Policy support is gaining momentum in China. The 2024 Special Action Plan for Cement Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction aims to raise alternative fuel use to 10% by 2025, explicitly naming hydrogen. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) sets out a 2030 goal to commercialize low-carbon kilns using hydrogen. Amid the decarbonization policy signals, China’s major cement producers are also stepping up: The Beijing Building Materials Academy of Scientific Research (BBMA) under Beijing Building Materials Group (BBMG) completed China’s first industrial trial in December 2024 using >70% hydrogen in calcination. Anhui Conch Cement Company used 5% hydrogen in pre-calciners, cutting 0.01 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of clinker, albeit with an added cost of yuan (CNY) 32.7/tonne. Tangshan Jidong Cement is building a full hydrogen supply chain in partnership with China National Chemical Engineering. Hydrogen is also being produced on-site using waste heat from clinker kilns to power electrolysis – a promising approach to localize supply and enhance energy efficiency. CHALLENGES STILL AHEAD Despite policy and pilot momentum, commercialization hydrogen use in China’s cement sector still faces barriers. Renewable hydrogen costs are too high for wide use. Studies suggest it would need to fall below $0.37/kg to be cost-effective in cement under carbon trading. Hydrogen is hard to store and transport, and its flame instability requires kiln retrofits and safety systems. China also lacks unified national technical standards for using hydrogen in cement, slowing adoption. Hydrogen may not yet be ready for mass rollout, but it is clearly part of the future of cement in China. As production costs fall, carbon markets grow, and hydrogen technologies mature, hydrogen could become a real driver of change in one of China’s hardest-to-decarbonize sectors. Insight article by Patricia Tao

10-Jun-2025